What Is The Deal With All These Small Wide Receivers

Sorting Out Small Wide Receivers

The 2023 wide receiver NFL draft class will certainly not be as great as we anticipated a year ago. Some of that results from a lack of actual breakout performances; some of that is from unrealistic expectations. A huge chunk of it is that this is maybe the smallest wide receiver class of all time, particularly for first-round prospects. It wasn’t just one or two wide receivers who were smaller than the prototype we have become accustomed to in the NFL, either.

Jordan Addison, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Zay Flowers, Jalin Hyatt, Charlie Jones, Marvin Mims, and Tyler Scott were all prospects who are expected to go either in the first round or on Day Two of the NFL draft who weighed less than 185 pounds. The existence of a sub-185-pound stud wide receiver is not unheard of (Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, and Brandin Cooks are all recent examples with > 200 fantasy point seasons), but it is far from the norm of what we have come to expect from dominant WR1s. Maybe it’s even unfair, but it does intuitively feel like the best fantasy wide receivers of the last 20 years have largely been Calvin Johnson-shaped, not Rondale Moore-shaped.

There was plenty of consternation about what to make of Devonta Smith two drafts ago. When Smith won the Heisman Trophy at Alabama and was drafted 10th overall by the Philadelphia Eagles, DeSean Jackson was the only WR who weighed less than 175 pounds to post a 200+ PPR fantasy point season. Smith then added his own 200+ season in 2022, and Darnell Mooney racked up 200+ in 2021. It certainly feels like the NFL has shifted away from monster outside WRs being the prototype of what works to win consistently. Average Depth of Target is at a 10-year low while teams are passing more than ever.

This sort of meta-shift, I think, is showing itself in the lack of hand-wringing about the size of this WR class. If NFL teams are placing less of a premium on contested catch ability and more of a premium on speed and route-running, it would probably follow that shifter, and smaller players can generate the same sort of eye-popping numbers as their formerly behemoth brethren. This creates a problem for us in fantasy football because our datasets will naturally lag.

I remain pretty underwhelmed with this WR class as a whole. Pat Kerrane has outlined why being low on Jaxson Smith-Njigba might be a serious mistake but comparing JSN to the sort of WRs we have been getting the last few years makes me feel a bit hollow. JSN will likely be a win with the 1.05 or 1.06 of your dynasty rookie drafts, but the Quentin Johnston/Downs/Hyatt/Addison/Flowers/Mims tier feels far more fraught.

Johnston Is #BuiltDifferent

Johnston has gotten the bad rap of being a “body catcher” and relying too much on contested catches for his production. I’m not going to pretend that I can #GrindTheTape and tell you if that means QJ is going to bust or not, but I do know that he doesn’t have the sort of unassailable prospect profile that I would like for the only big-bodied first-round WR in this class to have. He has become more compelling because he plays differently than the other highly-rated prospects in this class. He scored extremely high in Relative Athletic Score and is a taller, larger boundary wide receiver.

If we assume a first-round draft capital for Johnston, he gets that perfect mix of Rorscachs that can make you believe anything about a prospect. Justin Jefferson! Exciting! DeAndre Hopkins, it’s perfect! Errr…Jalen Reagor is there…and they went to the same school…and Breshad Perriman was a “body catcher,” and on and on. I think I am sort of pre-disposed to Johnston in this class simply because he at least offers something markedly different than Flowers/Hyatt/Downs/Addison, and that feels worth gambling on.

What it comes down to is that, in the aggregate, there will surely be some hits from this draft class. However, when comparing this class to 2020 (Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Pittman Jr.) or even the ‘21 draft class (Chase, Waddle, Devonta Smith, even later round hits like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Nico Collins), I think it is natural to feel underwhelmed.

Who Is The Mold-Breaker?

It certainly feels like one of Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, or Marvin Mims lands in a perfect spot where the coach knows how to use them, and they flourish for fantasy football purposes. Devonta Smith definitely changed NFL teams’ perspective about size for NFL WRs after his noteworthy 2022 season. I think there is evidence in draft picks like Tutu Atwell in the second round or Wilson/Olave going well ahead of Treylon Burks in the NFL Draft that we must apply a different size filter to WR prospects.

That being said, this is the list of the best PPR fantasy point seasons from wide receivers who weigh less than 176 pounds per Pro Football Reference’s filter:

Jackson, Smith, Mooney, and I think even Beasley can be looked at how these guys can hit for fantasy without changing the game. Jackson was one of the best deep-threat WRs in the game for the entirety of his career, and Smith excels at everything. Mooney and Beasley are the more prototypical slot/low aDOT floor plays that we hope is the floor scenario for someone like Addison.

There will be plenty more on this group of WRs' throughout the offseason (and after they get drafted). Still, I really just wanted to go through the thought exercise of how weird it would be if multiple fantasy football WR1s were coming from these sub-185 pound WRs, and the answer is: quite weird, even with evidence that football is being played in a much different way. I am fascinated to see how the market treats these atypical prospects throughout the offseason, both in dynasty and in best ball. It seems like a mistake to treat this group, on average, like standard WR prospects.

My answer for the mold-breaker: Marvin Mims. He weighed in heavier than Downs or Hyatt (183 pounds), ran a sub-4.40 forty-yard dash, broke out at 18, and averaged over 19.5 yards per reception at Oklahoma. I think the NFL market looks a little low on him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is picked higher than he is being mocked at the moment. His Rotoviz Sims are quite impressive:

We’ll be getting much deeper into prospect profiles through the offseason but I did want to make the declaration that Mims is my favorite of these under-sized WRs. It’s truly a fascinating case study in the changing nature of the NFL to see this class of relatively shrimpy wide receivers be treated as premium prospects.