How Much Does Draft Capital Impact Running Backs In Year Two

How Much Does Draft Capital Impact Running Backs In Year Two

A curious phenomenon happens to serious fantasy football players when an undrafted or Day Three NFL pick has a breakout season at running back. Heading into the next season, we assume that the player who had very little draft capital assigned to them by their NFL team will repeat whatever their breakout performance was. The breakout seasons and 2023 ADPs of Dameon Pierce, Tyler Allgeier, and Isiah Pacheco have me considering this phenomenon.

In Underdog drafts in 2023, Pierce is being drafted as the RB21, Pacheco the RB22, and Allgeier the RB26. The market is assigning a fairly distinct probability that all three of these Day Three NFL draft picks will lead their teams in rushing opportunity in 2023. So much of running back production comes from opportunity, not skill, so thinking through how teams & coaches are likely to assign backfield work is the most crucial element in projecting running back fantasy points.

I recently made a trade with a friend of the newsletter, Michael Leone, in which I sent the 1.08 dynasty rookie pick in one of our long-running Superflex/TE-Prem/Best Ball leagues for Pacheco and Pierce and I’m reasonably certain I got the worst of the trade. I wanted to dig into recent history to see if that was correct.

Draft Capital Is The Great Predictor

Since 2010, there have been 26 instances of a rookie running back who was drafted in rounds 4-7 (Day Three of the NFL draft) scoring 100 or more PPR fantasy points. If we filter for undrafted players only, that adds an additional 13 players who generated 100 or more PPR points as a rookie. These names are absolutely BANGING additions of “Remembering some guys”. Remember Branden Oliver? Remember Fat Rob Kelley?

This is the list of Rounds 4-7 RBs who posted over 100 PPR points as rookies since 2010:

Of those RBs, the only ones to post an RB2 (or better) fantasy season the next year were Morris, Howard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Marlon Mack. More than half of this list was out of the NFL before the end of their rookie contract. Some of the biggest fantasy busts of the last decade are here: Michael Carter, Roy Helu, Buck Allen, Jeremy Langford, and Jamaal Williams were all drafted WAY too high in Year Two.

To be fair, some of the UDFAs faired better. James Robinson was useful in 2021 after Travis Etienne got injured (though banished to the shadow realm now), Phillip Lindsay repeated as an RB2, LeGarrette Blount basically matched his rookie year, Isaiah Crowell was better in years 2/3/4 than as a rookie, Austin Ekeler is now a fantasy star, and Matt Brieda had 1000 yards as a sophomore. Maybe the function is that so little is expected of UDFAs, and they are such cheap labor that it makes more sense to keep them around.

When looking at all 39 of these players in totality, though, it becomes clear that their situations are far more tenuous than second or even third-round picks. Third-round picks like David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Demarco Murray, and Antonio Gibson saw their roles expand as second-year players.

Controlling for nothing about the situation, talent, or coaching, on average, a Day Three RB who performs decently as a rookie is more likely to lose fantasy points than gain fantasy points. So why is the market so confident right now in Pierce, Allgeier, and Pacheco?

For Pierce, it was because he seemed so good, and Devin Singeltary is not real competition, plus an incoming QB upgrade. The market assumes the Falcons will continue to run the air out of the ball and that Allgeier will be the primary rusher there. Pacheco is attached to the best QB in the game and might not have Jerick McKinnon in the backfield to steal passing-down work. I’m not refuting any of that. That’s not the point of this exercise, however.

We could easily see the Texans add another RB in the draft (they have 12 picks) with better or equal draft capital to Pierce. The Falcons have capable rushers in Caleb Huntley and Cordarelle Patterson and are a huge threat to take Bijan Robinson. The Chiefs… I mean, how many times have we done this? Since Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs’ backfield has been one huge game of whack-a-mole.

TL;DR

This is a long-winded way of saying: do not be surprised if RBs drafted on Day Three (or undrafted) are viewed as fungible by their coaches and front office. Fumbles, injuries, or consecutive poor performances are way more likely to result in permanent benching. We have an extremely long sample of guys like Michael Carter looking like “the guy” only to be bagging groceries in the next 18 months.